Foreign Exchange Risk in Pakistan Financial Institution

Foreign Exchange Risk in Pakistan fiscal InstitutionAbstractCompanies especi bothy international companies and monetary constitutes like banks and insurance companies be now exposed to extraneous bills chances ca ingestion by un anticipate movements in win over estimate. In order to survive in this competition age companies apply to manage this strange flip put on the line in a planned and good manner.The purpose of this involve is to describe the contrary theatrical roles of luck of infection of pictorial matters faced by fiscal institutions in Pakistan. These seeks whitethorn include variation adventure, execution encounter and ope measure guess. Research too includes the focussing and quantity of unknown interchange peril and studies the opposite methods of hedging this peril.The interrogation was conducted through internet, analyzing the financial reports of different financial institutes and face to face interviews conducted from different e xecutives of different financial institutes.Foreign throw danger has a great involve on the immediate payment flows and run profits of an organization piece of music doing business abroad and organizations have to familiar to manage and misrepresent this jeopardize by using different derived functions and choose the best method that is suitable to organization.Managing the unknown sub risk of exposure through hedging and social function of derivatives is very common in these days. Organization often uses leading and follow technique and less uses the swaps and invoice gold methods.1- IntroductionIn this section the back ground of the look for will be presented. On the radical of back ground we will make a research question and then followed the proposition for a financial institutions unknown give-and- come upon risk.1.1 Background of the studyWith the libertine development of sparing globalization since 70s of last century, today companies operate in as integra ted human marketplace. The world-wide market produces the global producer, supplier, customer and in any case global competitors. Now a days coin has no national boundaries. Mean tour the increasing global business has brought many new problems and opportunities for organizations. They also go ab show up different kinds of risks involving operation risk, coronation risk and financing risk etc. to be familiar with those risks and how to fudge and control these risks is very important for organizations. Especially the foreign counterchange risk is placed at the cover version of the risks to be concerned for an effective management.Multinational corporations and multinational enterprises atomic number 18 the entities that operate in at to the lowest degree deuce countries in both ways i.e production and rendering services. Recently foreign shift risk has got the increasing importance in both sectors corporate and books. Focusing on different aspects, a no of studies have b een d i in order to develop the theory and provide the facts of corporate sector in foreign transposition risk. Some of them like Charles, Ronald and Herman tried to study the veer rate behavior and others like Anderson Bollerslev, Diebold and Paul attempted to study the volatility of qualify rates.Present monitory system is elaborate by a mix of aimless and managed exchanged rate policies that every country per utilize in its best interest. whatever appreciation of a nones a encouragest other will bring export down and vise versa. Financial institutions must understand the foreign exchange risk in order to compete, survive and grow in their business of exports and to avoid from competition in imports.________________________________________________________________________http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation1.2 Research questionsWhat exchange risk does a financial institute face and whether they hedge it or not.Whether these institutions employ derivatives instruments to hedge exchange rate risk or not.What derivatives atomic number 18 utilise by these financial institutions in order to hedge the exchange risk?How these organizations measure the word picture of foreign exchange.What would be the objectives of foreign exchange risk management in financial institutions in Pakistan1.3 manipulationMain purpose of this research is to describe the actual condition of foreign exchange risk in financial institutions in Pakistan. And how these organizations manage this risk and what efforts are done by these organizations to hedge the risk.1.4 DispositionChapter one Introduction discipline This check is that where the research topic was introduced along with the importance of the foreign exchange risk management, the background of study and our purpose of study. The research problem and questions has been brought up, and we provide reader with our research purpose.Chapter two books review subject field it is the literature review part. It will include the theory of foreign exchange risk management concepts of foreign exchange risk, its classification, characteristics, and different methods and techniques to manage and hedge this risk.Chapter three Research methodologyContent This part is about the methods and techniques used for research purpose that how the data will be ga on that pointd analyze and how to reach the conclusion.Chapter four Empirical findingsContent In this part of thesis research will be done with the help of annual reports of different organizations. The study will help in analyzing that how these organizations manage this risk and what techniques are used by them.Chapter five Comparative AnalysisContent In this chapter we will match the data ga at that placed from different financial institutions and find out the managing methods used by them.Chapter six Conclusions and RecommendationsContent this part will contain the summary of our findings, implication and results answering the research qu estions of subsisting theory. It will also contains the recommendation for incoming research that may evaluate this research2. Literature ReviewIt is the review of literature regarding the foreign exchange risk management. It also includes the concepts, characteristics by types and different methods of hedging this risk.2.1 Foreign exchange risk2.1.1 The concept of foreign exchange riskWhat is foreign exchange risk? Different authors and researchers define exchange risk in different ways. Niso abuaf defines foreign exchange risk is the chance that fluctuation in the exchange rate will change the profitability of a dealing from its expected look on?. (P.29)This definition is in terms of financial risk.Cornell and Shapiro (P.45) also define foreign exchange risk as variability in the comfort of a firm as measured by the present value of its expected forthcoming change flows, caused by uncertain exchange rate changes. In this definition both the researchers emphasize the firms change flows.Hekman (60) defines exchange risk in terms of control of firms as the possibility that operational and financial results may exceed or fall short of budget.Foreign exchange rate risk is the potential gain or departure resulting from a change in exchange rate. It is the risk arising from the adverse movements in exchange rate to the earnings and capital. It is the impact of adverse movement in specie exchange rate on the value of open foreign currency position. Banks faced this risk that arises from maturity mismatching of foreign currency positions. Banks also face the risk of failure to pay of counter party in foreign exchange business. while such type of risk crystallization does not cause primary loss, bank may narrow new transaction in cash/spot market for replacing the failed transactions.____CGAP Portfolio, Are MFIs Hedging Their Bets? free 1, April 2005Major categories of exchange rate changes are given as followDepreciation it is the ongoing descent in t he value of currency in the relevance of another(prenominal) currency.Devaluation it is the sharp fall in the value of currency in comparison of another currency.Appreciation it is the gradual increase in the value of currency in comparison of another currency.For example, a financial institution that has not managed its foreign exchange risk willLose money through currency depreciation when the value of local anesthetic currency waterfall as compared to the currency in which the liability is held. That is, if a financial institutionsay bank has borrowed in US Dollars and giving debt in local currency PKR will suffer a loss if the value of rupee falls against Dollars. It must have more PKR to service the Dollar based debt.2.1.2 Classifications of foreign exchange riskAnkrom (1974) was the first writers who classify the foreign exchange risk in different categories. Many other writers and researcher also classified foreign exchange risk in different types. These authors include pede strian (1978), Whilborg (1980), Dumas (1984), and Shapiro (1989). Following are three main kinds of foreign exchange risk,Translation exposureTransaction exposureOperating exposureThese risks are further delineate by Shapiro in 2006.Translation exposure, also know as accounting exposure, arises from the need for purpose of reporting and consolidation, to convert the financial statements of foreign operations from the local currency (LC) involved to home currency (HC). If exchange rate has changed, liabilities revenues, expenses, gains and losses that are denominated in foreign currency will result in foreign exchange gain or loss.?This exposure chiefly affects the balance sheet and those items of income statement that already exist.Transaction risk, result from transactions that give rise to know, existingly binding prospective foreign-currency-denominated cash inflows or cash outflows. As exchange rate change among now and when these transactions settle, so does the value of their associated foreign currency cash flow, leading to currency gains or losses.?This exposure affects the cash flows of an organization which back tooth be the result of an existing rationalizeual obligation. For example this risk may affect the transactional account like receivables (export transactions) and payables (import transactions) or repatriation of dividends.Operating exposure, measures the extent to which currency fluctuations gouge variegate a telephoners future day operating cash flows, that is, its future revenues and costs. The firm faces operating exposure the moment it invests in servicing a market subject to foreign competition or in sourcing goods or inputs abroad. This investment includes new-product development, a distri thoion network, foreignSupply contracts, or production facilities.?This risk also affects cash flows tho impacts revenues and costs associated with future sales.The combination of two exposures i.e transaction exposure and operating exp osure is also called economic exposure as said by Shapiro. This economic exposure actually affects the firms present value of future expected cash flows from exchange rate movement. Economic risk concerns the effect of exchange rate changes both on revenues (domestic sales and exports) and operating expenses (domestic input costs and imports). It is very crucial for firms to establish a dodge of managing the foreign exchange risk as they have the clear identification of various types of currency risks along with their measurement.2.2 Measurement of foreign exchange riskFor the multinational firms, they must have to face the foreign exchange risk. It is very important for them to exactly measure the foreign exposure faced by their organization.2.2.1 Measurement of rendition riskHistory describes four principals method for rendering. These are given as followThe on-going/non current methodThe monitory/non monitory methodThe temporal methodThe current rate methodThese can be unders tood from following tableNote while translating the income statement sales revenues and interests are broadly speaking translated at average historic exchange rate that prevailed during the year, whereas depreciation is translated at appropriated historical rate. Cost of goods change and some general and administrative expenses are translated at historical exchange rate and other items are translated at current rate.C?= it stands for current rate. That means assets and liabilities are recorded at current tower rate. It is the rate at balance sheet date.H?= it shows historical rate. Assets and liabilities are recorded at historical rate that was prevailed during the period of time.After knowing all the methods of translating the issue arises is that which method should be used among these four methods while translating? Financial accounting standard board (FASB) in its standard 8 which relates to the governance of treatment of shift of foreign currency financial statements from 1975 requires that organizations should use the temporal method for interpreting of financial statements and the resulting gain or loss from translation should be included in income statement. But this treatment was argued that this produced gains or losses which were not the economic reality of the organizations business. So any hedging for this translation risk under this method seems not realistic meaning. From the invention of standard 52 published by Financial Accounting Standard gore to the end of 1981, which replaced the FAS 8, require that organizations must use the current rat method for translation purpose. FAS 52 introduced the usable currency, which is identified by each organization for basic economic environment and selected for each of the organizations foreign entities. If the operating(a) currency is foreign currency, the standard requirement is to use the current rate method for any translation gain and loss that is taken directly to the share holders equity. Whereas if the functional currency is the parents company currency, then the rule described by FAS 8 should follow. The above mentioned issues can be referred to the Adrian Buckleys book named Multinational Finance? (2004) (P145-152).http//pages.stern.nyu.edu/igiddy/fxrisk.htm, The counselling of Foreign Exchange Risk? by Ian H. GiddyAnd Gunter Dufey2.2.2 Measure of economic exposureas Adler and Dumas (1980,19840defined foreign exchange risk as the regression of assets value on the exchange rate and recommended that exchange rate risk of organizations can be calculated by the sensitivity of stock return to exchange rate activities. Many other researchers like Popper (1997), Bodnar and Gentry (1993) And recently Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005), have been done to explore the foreign exchange exposure. Whereas Holton (2003) indicated that when measuring the foreign exchange risk is difficult it is due to the difficulty of measuring the economic risk. For the measurement of economic risk the method used is value-at-risk (VAR). in broader sense value at risk is defined as the maximum loss for a given risk over a given period of time with z% confidence. This definition was given by micheal papaioannou (2006).2.3 Foreign Exchange Risk Management2.3.1 integrated Objectives of Risk ManagementAfter knowing the foreign exchange risk and its measurement faced by the organization, the company should choose to whether hedge this risk or not and further know how this risk should be managed. Oxelheim and wihlborg (1987) with mutual participation produced the idea of currency risk which is given as follow,Risk aversion it relates to the need of reduction of variability of cash flows in business?The target variable in summaries form these are the efforts of the organization to maximize or to stabilize, measurement in accounting or cash flow, measurement in nominal or real terms.?An effective foreign exchange risk management requires definite objectives viewing managements app roach toward the foreign exchange risk. The decision making of hedging or not to hedging the foreign exchange exposure depends upon the attitude of companys management towards exchange risk management. Hedging strategy varies from organization to organization. Whenever there is a risk the risk aversion companies try to hedge this risk whereas the risk taking companies appropriate this risk unhedged. This is the idea arises from management of financial risks that management of financial risk is unnecessary and the gain and loss is will at last equalize in term of equilibrium traffichip in the international financial market. This idea was given by Dufey and Sirininasulu in 1984 Foreign exchange risk does not exist even if it exists, it need not be hedged even it is to be hedged, corporations need not hedge it.? It is the general concept that the organizations involved in exports and imports should hedge the risk of foreign risk exposure as a risk averse attitude. In real terms compa nies prefer to manage the risk at heart an acceptable limit instead of adopting neither of the two attitudes.Management should be in charge for ensuring to take suitable and reasonable actions based on after-tax term to settle the risk.2.3.2 Theoretical appraisal of managing foreign exchange exposureit is the basic strategy of the organizations to hedge the foreign exposure that they increase hard currency assets and decrease the flossy currency assets, at the same time decreasing the hard currency liabilities and increasing the soft currency liabilities. However, many debates relating to the hedge the translation exposure exist in finance literature. Pramborg (2002) pointed out that transaction exposure hedging comes to add value for Swedish companies whereas there is no value addition from translation exposure. Butler (1990) suggested that it support the general suggestion of the finance literature not to worry about this type of risk, so it might not be hedged. A reason for no t hedging this risk is that translation exposure risk is uneconomic as it is based on historical book value and has no direct effect on organizations cash flows. Thus organization should concern to the exposure faced to the cash flows.Earlier experimental studies by Belk and Glaum (1990) and Aobo (1999) who have investigated the foreign exchange risk management in UK and US multinationals, show that the management of transaction exposure is the focal point of company exchange risk management for the transaction risk control the real cash flows.As compared to translation and transaction risk operating risk is less defined and more difficult to manage. It could be defined as the sensitivity of an organizations future cash flows to the unexpected change in foreign exchange rate and any change in aggressive environment caused by these currency movements. Belk and Glaum (1990) found that firms were less worried about the real impact of exchange rate varies on the competitive position of the companies. Bradley and Moles (2002) find that there is a strong relations ship between exchange rate sensitivity and the extent to which it sales, sources and funds itself worldwide. Shapiro (2006) argued that it could be concluded that organizations operating exposure is attri simplyed to distinguish a companys product is, the internationaly expand its competitors is, the ability to shift production, the sourcing of inputs among countries, and the variation in real exchange rate. It is assumed that the firms more involved in foreign markets the greater would be the operating risk faced by the organization.Shapiro (2006) concluded that firms can easily hedge their transaction risk, competitive exposure (operating exposure) are long term and can not be dealt with exclusively through financial hedging techniques, they relatively require making the long term operating adjustment. Strategic reorientation of operating policies related to determine, sources, military position of pr oduction and financing needs not totally financial managers but also requires the corporate managers. Moffet and Karlsen (1994) illustrate the use of production, financial and promotion policies to manage economic currency risk as natural hedging. being a part of globalization business environment, diversification of international operations is very important for multinational corporations to handle operating risk. So this can give the companies to maintain competitive advantage and protective reactions to adverse exchange rate changes. Whenever service cost or domestic production cost is affected by exchange rate changes as compared to those of producing in foreign country, the firm can move product sourcing from those countries whose currency is devalued or plant transfered there. Strategic marketing and production regulations in general are for cost-effective. some other operational process used to hedge operating exposure is financial management, which are formating the firm s assets and liabilities. One preference is to funding the portion of a firms assets used to create export profits so that changes in foreign assets values caused by an exchange rate change are compensate by virtual changes in the debt expense in the same currency. For example, a firm should hold debt in currency of a foreign country, in which the firm increases a considerable export market. Existing text such as Glaum (1990) suggests economic exposure management should be integrated into the long-range, strategic planning system of the corporation and included with all areas of corporate decision-making.Tools and techniques for foreign exchange risk managementNowadays foreign exchange risk could not only control a firms quarterly earnings, butAlso decide its survival. A variety of financial utilises come into sight as the financial markets require managing the different increasing exposure that firms face. ForManaging foreign exchange risk, there exist internal techniques such as matchinginflows and outflows, inter-company netting of receipts and payments, transferpricing agreement, etc, and external hedging tools involve the usage of differentsorts of derivatives including forwards, futures, debt, survival of the fittests and swaps. Each ofthese techniques differs to hedge different exchange risk in each company situation.There have been many studies concerned with the effect from the use of these funds derivatives, e.g. recent study as Allayannis and Ofek (2001), BengtPramborg (2002).Foreign exchange forwardsA forward foreign exchange contract is a contract to exchange one currency foranother with a exceptional keep down, where the exchange rate is fixed on the day of thecontract but the actual exchange takes place on a fixed date in the future. The predetermined exchange rate is also known as the forward exchange rate. The join of the contract, the value date, the payments method, and the exchange rate are allmentioned in contract at the time of cont ract. Forward contracts in major currencies are available on daily basis with maturities of up to 30-, 90-, and 180-day. Two types of forwards contracts are often used deliverable forwards (face amount of currency is exchanged on settlement date) and non-deliverable forwards (which are settled on a net cash basis).A currency forward contract is usually used to hedge exchange risks that ranges from short to middling term and whose timing is known for certainty. It is so important forFirms treasurers to deal in the forward market that they can fix the costs ofimports and exports in advance for the payable or receivable amount and hedge the exchange risk. A lot of experimental researches such as Belk et al. (1992), Bodnar et al. (1995), Mallin et al (2000) and Pramborg (2002) pointed out that the most commonly used method is forward exchange contract. With forwards, the firm can be totally hedged. However, some exposures including settlement risk that exchange rate shift in the oppos ite direction as they predicted, and counter party risk which the other party is unable to perform the contract. Sometimes the high cost of forward contracts preventFirms to implement this instrument to fully hedge their exchange exposure. For that reason, futures are more beneficial.Currency futuresCurrency future is another tool to decrease the exposure of foreign exchange instabilityIt is an exchange-traded agreement specifying a standard amount of a particular currencyto be replaced on a specific future payment date. It is likely to forward contract in a way that they permit a firm to cloud or sell definite currency at a fixed outlay and at a future time.So far, there are some differences among these two sorts of practices. One of thefutures distinctiveness vary from forward is that futures are standardized both foramount and payment date ( commonly March, June, September and December), whereasForwards are for any amount and any delivery date upon which the two parties are ag reed. One more difference is that forwards are dealt by phone and telex and are completely independent of locality or time while all clearing functions for futures markets are hold by an exchange clearing house. The biggest difference is in terms ofliquidation that futures contracts are settled by balancing of gains and losses for each day,whereas forward contracts are settled by real delivery whether full delivery of the twoCurrencies or net value only at the contract maturity. Giddy and Dufey said This daily cash compensation attribute mostly eliminates negligence risk.?Futures market and forward market both are of most important ways to hedge risk. DavidTien (2002) pointed out Firms uncomfortable with the uncertainty involved inreceiving a fixed payment in foreign currency can easily hedge the transaction usingeither futures or forward contracts.? Some studise as Belk and Glaum (1992) establishthat none of the firms which were talked used currency futures, because the standardiz ed features of exchange traded futures most often do not enable the companies to hedge their positions completely. Mallin et al (2000) also found that only 9 companies out of 231 respondents to their survey used currency futures. Giddy and Dufey conclude that forwards and futures serve similar purposes, and tend to have identical rates, but differ in their applicability?. The largest part of big companies use forwards futures tend to be used whenever exchange risk may be a problem.Currency picksA foreign exchange option which is dissimilar from currency forward agreements andcurrency futures is to give the possessor of the contract the right to buy or sell a definiteamount of a certain currency at a prearranged price (also called touch or exerciseprice) until or on a specified date, but he is not bound to do so. The seller of acurrency option has obligation to execute the contract. The right to buy is a call position and the right to sell is a put position. There is option superi or required to pay by those who acquire such a right. The holder of a call option can take advantage from a price increases (profit is the difference between the market price and the strike price plus the premium), while can choose not to exercise the right when the price decreases (locked in loss of the option premium). Vice versa is the situation for the holder of a put option. For the advantages of simplicity, elasticity, lower cost than the forwards, and the expected maximum losswhich is up to the premium paid to acquire the right , the currency option has move growing popular as a hedging tool to protect firms against the exchange rate movements. Whenever there is insecurity in the size of cash flows and the timing of cash flows, currency option agreements would be break away to conventional hedging instruments such as forward contracts and futures contracts. Grant and marshall (1997) observed the degree of derivative use and the motives for their use by carried out surveys in 250 large UK companies, found that a extensive use of both forwards and options(respectively 96% and 59%). They pointed that comparing the most important reasons for the use of forwards were company policy, business reasons and risk aversion, A good understanding of instrument, and price were prominent while the primary reasons to use option for company management.Currency swapsAs a virtually new financial derivative used to hedge foreign exchange exposure,currency swaps have a rapid advancement. Since its introduction on a global scale is inthe early 1980s, currency swaps market has turn into one of the leading financialderivative markets in the world. A currency swap is a foreign exchange agreementamong two parties to exchange a given amount of one currency for another and,after a particular period of time, to give back the original amounts exchanged. It can benegotiated for a broad range of maturities up to at least 10 years, and can be regardedas a series of forward contracts . It is normally used under such circumstances that a firmfunctions in one currency but need to borrow in another currency. Currency swaps arefrequently connected with interest rate swaps, as the common rag currency swaps thecross-currency coupon swap which is to pay fixed and get floating interestsum meantime buying the currency swap. Another generally used one is crosscurrency basis swap which is to pay floating interest in a currency and obtainfloating interest in another currency. The benefit of currency swaps is to facilitateeach contracting part to borrow in their relative constructive market, and bothparties can benefit from the swaps by lessening the get costs. The use of swapsnow has developed rapidly in western countries such as Grant and Marshall (1997)found that the use of swaps and forwards/futures is dominant in UK, Bodnar et al.(1995) found that swaps govern for interest rate risk management in US.